By the end of 2022, the rooftop solar capacity in India is likely to reach 15-16 GW, which is only one-third of the 40 GW target set by the government.
In CY2019, India added about 2.1 GW of new rooftop solar capacity, and we are estimating another 2.5-3 GW of new rooftop solar capacity likely to be added in CY2020.
However, there can be a correction of about 20-30% in this number because of ongoing Coronavirus issues. The impact of this is likely to be visible in Q2 2020 (Apr-June).
Key trends that will shape up rooftop solar market growth in India in the next few years will be –
- Residential segment will pick up pace
- Adoption of battery storage technologies
- OPEX model will be a preferred model for C&I consumers
- MSMEs share to grow
- Affordable financing
Even though there are many avenues for growth in the Indian rooftop solar market, there are new regressive policies that have increasingly been imposed by various state regulators in the last one year itself like –
- Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have restricted net metering connections only for residential consumers.
- Recently Maharashtra also has imposed a new type of Grid Support Charges (GSC) based on the cost of setting up distribution infrastructure, cost of balancing the grid, and banking of energy. These charges will be paid by the rooftop solar developer and are yet to be decided by MERC.
The Indian government needs to address these regulatory hurdles efficiently to scale up the capacity additions.
This story based on inputs from JMK Research; edited by Clean-Future Team