India’s renewable energy producers are raising concerns about the accuracy of weather forecasting systems. This comes as the country’s power regulator moves to enforce stricter grid performance rules. Developers warn that gaps in weather data could make compliance more difficult. Many clean energy projects may face penalties as a result.
During a public hearing in December, industry representatives pointed to weaknesses in India’s weather prediction infrastructure. They stressed the need for hyper-local forecasting to help solar and wind plants better estimate power output. In September, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) released a draft under the Deviation Settlement Mechanism. The proposal seeks to gradually reduce the gap between forecasted and actual power generation. The revised rules are expected to come into force in April 2026.
Moreover, clean energy companies say India’s current meteorological framework does not provide the level of precision renewable projects require. For instance, Adani Green Energy, one of the country’s largest renewable developers, has highlighted these challenges. According to the company, even with advanced deep-learning models developed in collaboration with teams in Switzerland and France, achieving accurate hyper-local weather forecasts remains difficult.
India’s tropical monsoon climate adds to the challenge. Weather conditions can change suddenly and without warning. This makes forecasting harder than in regions with stable seasonal patterns, such as Europe or the United States. Developers say this unpredictability makes it harder to match power generation with grid commitments.
Industry stakeholders have also raised concerns about data update frequency. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) refreshes its baseline weather data every six hours. This limits its usefulness for short-term operational planning. Developers argue that more frequent and localized updates are essential to improve forecasting accuracy and reduce grid deviations.
As regulators push for stronger grid reliability, renewable energy firms are calling for better weather data. At the same time, they warn that poor forecasting could slow progress under stricter compliance rules.
Reference- Reuters, IMD, Mercom India, Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
