Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report predicts that wind and solar is expected to grow to almost 50% by 2050 and coal will shrink to 11% of global electricity generation plus batteries will increase in popularity as prices will fall.
Specifically, BNEF predicts that lithium-ion battery prices — which have already plummeted 80% per megawatt-hour (MWh) since 2010 — will only continue to tumble as the electric vehicle sector continues to build through the 2020s. The arrival of cheap battery storage will mean that it will become increasingly possible to fine tune the delivery of electricity from wind and solar.
The report also highlights an expected $11.5 trillion being invested globally in new power generation capacity between 2018 and 2050, of which 73%, will go towards wind and solar, and a remaining towards zero-carbon technologies such as hydropower and nuclear.
Coal emerges as the biggest loser in the long run. Beaten on cost by wind and PV for bulk electricity generation, and batteries and gas for flexibility, the future electricity system will reorganize around cheap renewables. Coal burn in power stations will fall by 56% between 2017 and 2050.
Further, BNEF predicts that the global electricity sector will see its emissions increase 2% from 2017 to a peak in 2027, and then falling by 38% by 2050.
