At the end of 2018, electric vehicles were only 2% of new sales, and regarded by most people as an interesting but far-off phenomenon, not ready for prime time.
At the end of 2019, based on current growth rates and forecasts, electric vehicles (EV) will be only 3.6% of new sales, and regarded by most as an interesting but uncompelling idea.
At the end of 2020, if the trend holds, maybe a 6.5% market share will turn some heads, with a Tesla building 1M/yr of Model 3 and Y at average new car price, stealing sales from popular small crossovers via superior performance and major operating cost savings, and imitators starting to flood the market.
In 2021, just continuing the 80% YoY rise that has held true for several years already, you get almost 12% of new sales. People take notice.
Halfway through 2024, only five years from now, you break 50%.
By 2025, what previously looked like an exponential curve reveals itself, as the graphs of many real-world phenomena do, to be a logistic curve.
By this time, EVs are expected to achieve purchase price parity through continued improvements in battery chemistry and production scale, which adds to their already compelling operating cost advantage.
The range anxiety argument is gone, the cost argument is gone, the durability and longevity concerns have been disproved by 15 years of consumer data, charging infrastructure is fast and ubiquitous.
But before all this happens we will have to address… if we can physically manufacture enough batteries for that prediction. Or mine enough materials to manufacture enough batteries.
At the moment there is NO way that’s happening, will be interesting to see how quickly EV companies can increase materials supply, and battery manufacturing.
However, if we look at the models coming to market and the amount of R&D money in play, it’s quite feasible.
Reference- Jeffrey Blaisdell, Peter Tremewen, Quora Post, Futurism, InsideEV
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